[현지정보] 캐나다 중앙은행 정책금리 인상, 2018년 및 2019년 성장률 전망 상향조정

1. 주요 내용 (정책금리 인상)

□ 캐나다 중앙은행(BOC)은 지난 두 차례 회의에서 정책금리를 동결*한 후 금 번 회의에서는 정책금리를 1.25%로 인상(+25bp) * BOC는 지난해 7월과 9월 연속으로 정책금리를 인상(각각 +25bp)한 후 10월, 12월 회의에서는 동결 o NAFTA 관련 불확실성이 경제전망의 리스크 요인으로 작용하고 있지만 경제성장세가 견조하고 인플레이션이 목표수준에 근접해 있는 점 등을 고려할 때 정책금리를 인상하는 것이 적절하다고 판단 o 일정 수준의 통화완화 기조를 유지할 필요*가 있다고 언급하며 향후 정책금리 조정에 있어 신중한 태도를 견지할 것임을 강조 * some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target

(성장률 전망: 2018년, 2019년 상향조정)

□ 세계경제는 주요 선진국과 신흥시장국이 모두 견조한 성장세를 지속하고 있으나 미 무역정책 관련 불확실성, 지정학적 위험 확대 가능성은 하방리스크 요인

o 미국경제는 세제개혁에 힘입어 성장모멘텀이 더욱 강화될 것으로 예상 o 유로지역 및 신흥시장국(아시아 자원수출국 등)도 예상보다 높은 성장세를 시현 o 유가는 현 수준에서 등락할 것으로 예상되나 하방리스크가 다소 우세한 것으로 평가

2018.1월 Bank of Canada 통화정책회의 정책결정문

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent. Recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity. However, uncertainty surrounding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is clouding the economic outlook. The global economy continues to strengthen, with growth expected to average 3 1/2 per cent over the projection horizon. Growth in advanced economies is projected to be stronger than in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In particular, there are signs of increasing momentum in the US economy, which will be boosted further by recent tax changes. Global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to Canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and Canadian oil prices. In Canada, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017. Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon. Consumption and residential investment have been stronger than anticipated, reflecting strong employment growth. Business investment has been increasing at a solid pace, and investment intentions remain positive. Exports have been weaker than expected although, apart from cross-border shifts in automotive production, there have been positive signs in most other categories. Looking forward, consumption and residential investment are expected to contribute less to growth, given higher interest rates and new mortgage guidelines, while business investment and exports are expected to contribute more. The Bank’s outlook takes into account a small benefit to Canada’s economy from stronger US demand arising from recent tax changes. However, as uncertainty about the future of NAFTA is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the Bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade. The Bank continues to monitor the extent to which strong demand is boosting potential, creating room for more non-inflationary expansion. In this respect, capital investment, firm creation, labour force participation, and hours worked are all showing promising signs. Recent data show that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated. Wages have picked up but are rising by less than would be typical in the absence of labour market slack. In this context, inflation is close to 2 per cent and core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with diminishing slack in the economy. The Bank expects CPI inflation to fluctuate in the months ahead as various temporary factors (including gasoline and electricity prices) unwind. Looking through these temporary factors, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 per cent over the projection horizon. While the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target. Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.

0117(현지정보)캐나다+중앙은행+정책금리+인상.pdf